"It's not about timing the markets, it's about time in the market
."
Market Update Report— November 5, 2008
No investor will likely mourn the end of October, which will go down as one of the worst months in financial market history. It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. The Standard and Poor’s 500 in October had its worst month of performance since October 1987 while also having its best five trading days since 1974.
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Market Update Report —October 7, 2008
The stock market sell-off has continued unabated this week despite positive earnings news from IBM and Chevron among others. Indeed, excluding financials, third quarter earnings are expected to be up 8%. Nevertheless, in just the past seven days, the S&P 500 index has dropped 22%. The market hit its all time high exactly one year ago, and it has declined over 41% or $8.3 trillion since then. This 12 month return is the worst since 1937. Yes, the economy is in a recession, and the credit market freeze-up has made life difficult for many businesses, but the economic fundamentals simply do not justify such massive declines. It is fear and capitulation, rather than fundamentals that are driving the stock market currently.
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Quarterly Report to Clients— Third Quarter 2008, September 30, 2008
It is easy to look back over the past 30 days and see why September was so volatile. The month saw an unprecedented shakeout in the financial markets. Several economists and analysts have pointed out that the markets were surprisingly resilient in the face of the September events. ?Knowing how markets hate uncertainty, we expect the short-term impact of the news to only add to the already heightened level of uncertainty and volatility. The longer term impact is somewhat easier to assess.
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Quarterly Report to Clients— Second Quarter 2008, July 1, 2008
June was a very difficult month for the market. All the major U.S. stock indices declined approximately ten percent, more than reversing the gains recovered in April and May. Crude oil jumped almost $20 per barrel and carried the headlines daily. This significant increase, combined with rising food prices, brought with it inflation concerns.
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